Now
consider the politics. At the moment, one particular approach to
modelling the Covid-19 epidemic - that of Imperial College, London - is
holding court in the UK. The actions that we are taking were based on
these modelling results. Barely a day goes by without a politician
saying that they will be 'led by the science'. But what we are seeing
with Covid-19 is not 'science' in action. Science involves matching
theories with evidence and testing a theory with attempts to falsify it,
so that it can be refined to better match reality. A theory from a
group of scientists is just that: a theory. Believing the opinion of
that group without a critical verification process is just that:
belief.
The
modelling results may be close to the truth, or they could be very far
from it. The idea of science is that you can test the data and the
assumptions, and find out." ......And as I have previously argued,
the way we are recording causes of death in terms of respiratory
infection is different in this epidemic from any previous one, meaning
that our observation and recording of Covid-19 deaths is more
comprehensive and therefore potentially more alarming.Death figures, or indeed any other figures, on their own mean nothing without context."
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