Wednesday, 9 November 2016

Wrong Trump predictions due to omnipresent left-wing liars, propagandists, bullies

LuboŇ° Motl's Reference Frame
Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States of America. Congratulations!

He may have flaws but as far as I can say, he represents a much better direction for the future of America – and the West – than his competitor. His victory – perhaps 300 to 240 electoral votes or so – is sound and he won the popular vote by a percentage point, too. And as Ann Coulter has observed, if only people whose grandparents already lived in the U.S. were voting, Trump would have safely won all 50 states in a landslide.    .........Now it looks simple and obvious. My claims that the polls were "just like in the case of Brexit" were totally right. The whole media and polling machinery systematically tried to make the "politically incorrect" choice look weaker in both cases. The differences of percentages differed by almost 10% between the average forecasts and the reality.  .....I've mentioned that the errors of the forecasts – which underestimated the Trump-Clinton difference by 5-10 points – obviously cannot be statistical errors. This mistaken forecast can't be due to some accidental noise, isolated random mistakes in the agencies' prediction of the voters' behavior. Trump was heavily underestimated in virtually every group that claimed to provide us with the information. The large inaccuracies have to be due to a systematic error. .........."