CW
It’s well past time the Government and the country overcame their
disproportionate fear of this virus, that has put our lives on hold for
months and trashed our economy and many livelihoods.
The 59,187 excess deaths in England and Wales during the epidemic
period are a real tragedy, but in the scheme of things they are of the
same order as other similar epidemics in previous years. The figure is
almost identical, for example, to the death toll of the 1999-2000 flu
season, once adjusted for population. Furthermore, there were around 12,000 non-Covid excess deaths during
the height of the epidemic this year, most of which may be attributable
to lockdown conditions. So 2020 may even have come out better than
1999-2000 had we not taken the unprecedented step of confining the
population to their homes. The age profile of those who die with Covid-19 is almost identical to
natural mortality, meaning it remains to be seen how many excess deaths
2020 will have by the end of the year after a period of presumably
below-average mortality. Lockdown proponents, of course, will say it would have been much
worse if we hadn’t done anything, just as they claim we can expect a
deadly second wave since we are a long way from collective immunity. However, there is no evidence that lockdowns and social distancing
had any discernible impact on outcomes, with no relationship appearing
in the data between the timing and strictness of measures adopted in
different countries or states and the overall death toll or the shape of
the curve."
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