Thursday 14 May 2009

Mervyn's strangely serene despite our worrying similarities to Zimbabwe

Telegraph
"It is a nasty dilemma for an independent central bank. Given that the Bank is printing money and buying gilts, the main thing that separates us from our Zimbabwean counterparts is that the Bank is not doing so expressly in order to keep the Government afloat. It is doing so because this is the best mechanism to pour cash into the economy.
However, it is difficult to see how this independence cannot be undermined when, next year or the year after, the Bank finally has to sell these gilts off. At that stage, with markets already engorged with UK government debt, the Bank risks setting off a capital strike by pouring more of them out there. This would have severe economic consequences for the UK, so it ought to be in the Bank's interests to avoid such an eventuality. But give the markets any impression that you are complicitly financing the Government's deficit and you risk setting off a hyperinflationary crisis of the likes we have never before seen."

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