Luboš Motl's Reference Frame
Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States of America. Congratulations!
He may have flaws but as far as I can say, he represents a much better
direction for the future of America – and the West – than his
competitor. His victory – perhaps 300 to 240 electoral votes or so – is
sound and he won the popular vote by a percentage point, too. And as Ann
Coulter has observed, if only people whose grandparents already lived
in the U.S. were voting, Trump would have safely won all 50 states in a
landslide. .........Now it looks simple and obvious. My claims that the polls were "just
like in the case of Brexit" were totally right. The whole media and
polling machinery systematically tried to make the "politically
incorrect" choice look weaker in both cases. The differences of
percentages differed by almost 10% between the average forecasts and the
reality. .....I've mentioned that the errors of the forecasts – which underestimated
the Trump-Clinton difference by 5-10 points – obviously cannot be
statistical errors. This mistaken forecast can't be due to some
accidental noise, isolated random mistakes in the agencies' prediction
of the voters' behavior. Trump was heavily underestimated in virtually
every group that claimed to provide us with the information. The large
inaccuracies have to be due to a systematic error. .........."
