Thursday, 10 September 2009

Recovery talk is meaningless to the man with his P45 in the post

Telegraph
"Unemployment is the only indicator that counts when it comes to confidence, ....
The British economy, I'm afraid, is beginning to resemble a raging junkie, craving regular fixes of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus. No sooner do Mervyn King and Alistair Darling administer the drugs than the patient screams for more.Just like painkillers, when policy medication is dished out too generously, it transmutes from pacifier to problem. At a recent high of $1,000 an ounce, the gold price is telling us what this problem might be – inflation."

Weak pound might not be enough to rescue UK economy

Telegraph
"Sterling was meant help lift Britain out of recession, but with oil exports falling there are long-term concerns over the trade deficit."

European Commission sees galloping UK debt crisis

Telegraph
"Britain's public debt will explode to 180pc of GDP within a decade unless future governments take drastic measures to restore fiscal probity, according to a confidential study by the European Commission. The projection is more than twice the level forecast by the UK Treasury, which expects the debt to peak at around 80pc before gradually falling as growth revives and tax revenues come back to life.What is shocking is that UK risks decoupling from the other major economies in Europe, vaulting past Germany, France and even Italy into a wholly different league. Ireland is in the worst shape, with debt projected to reach 200pc of GDP."

Tuesday, 8 September 2009

Britain's economy less stable than Peru

Telegraph
"Britain has a less stable economy than Montenegro or Peru, as a result of the mountain of government debt raised to bail out the banks, according to the World Economic Forum....
The report's authors said: "A significant and growing weakness remains the UK's macro-economic instability, with low national savings, an exploding public-sector deficit (related in large part to recent efforts to bail out the financial sector), and consequential public indebtedness."The soundness of British banks was ranked 126th in the world, after war-torn Burundi and only four places above Iceland."

Monday, 7 September 2009

Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

Telegraph
"Deflation is spreading from the core of the global system to the most unexpected regions of the world. It has even reached Latin America. Prices are sliding in Peru, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, to the consternation of everybody.Enough of the world has already fallen so far into pre-deflation conditions that any misjudgment by the big central banks from now risks setting off a chain-reaction that may prove very hard to stop. ....Beijing is at last tightening credit, mostly by stealth. We will learn soon whether Market Maoists are better at pricking asset bubbles than Ben Strong's Fed in the 1920s, or Ben Bernanke's Fed today."
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China’s $50bn IMF deal puts 'redback' on the world stage (The Times)

Saturday, 5 September 2009

Electioneering is putting confidence in Britain's economy at risk

Telegraph
"Those fears make Mr Brown’s message to the G20 that governments should go on another spending spree next year even more extraordinary. I share Mr Darling’s hope that we will come out of recession this year.Yet that exposes the fundamental contradiction at the heart of the Labour argument. If they expect the economy to return to growth this year, how can they continue with large increases in public spending next year that the country cannot afford?Most other countries are looking for ways to turn the spending taps off, not to open them up."

Friday, 4 September 2009

Gold hovers near record price amid inflation fears

Daily Mail
"Gold remained tantalisingly close to an all-time record last night - highlighting Gordon Brown's spectacularly misjudged sale of 395 tonnes of bullion seven years ago.
Concerns that the global economy is facing a painful bout of inflation have pushed the gold price up by $40 an ounce to $988 this week - just short of last March's all-time high of $1,035.The surge in the precious metal exposes the poor judgment of the Prime Minister, who as Chancellor ordered the sale of a major slice of Britain's bullion reserves between 1999 and 2002.The PM dumped 12million ounces of gold at an average price of $275 per ounce, netting the public around £2billion.Had he held on and sold yesterday, the taxpayer would have been £5.2billion richer.The 'lost' windfall would have been enough to build around 400 schools or 40 hospitals."

Thursday, 3 September 2009

Gordon Brown’s $1 trillion global rescue package unravels

The Times
"Alistair Darling is scrambling to plug a gaping hole in the $1.1 trillion global rescue package agreed by G20 leaders in London — hailed at the time as Gordon Brown’s biggest success.Some countries, led by Germany, are even calling for the bailout to be scaled back amid fears that it risks burdening economies with too much debt and could encourage inflation.The breakdown of unity reflects the different speeds at which countries are emerging from recession and conflicting views about the outlook for the global economy."

Britain to lag world in emerging from recession

The Times
"Mr Darling is arguing that leading nations must keep pumping money into the global economy to support growth. However, other countries, led by Germany, are calling for a $1.1 trillion global rescue package agreed by G20 leaders to be scaled back amid fears it risks burdening economies with too much debt and could encourage inflation."

Britain to stay in recession as world recovers... but Darling says we must keep on spending

Daily Mail
"George Osborne fired a shot across the bows today as he accused Labour of being in 'complete denial' about soaring public debt and joined the calls for an exit strategy.
'There's a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Alistair Darling's argument. He says that he expects, as we do, that Britain will come out of recession this year - and yet he wants to go on with large increases in public spending next year, when he knows the country cannot afford it,' the shadow chancellor said.'His position has everything to do with the politics of a looming election and nothing to do with the economic interests of the British people.'

UK economy to be last to exit global recession, OECD says

Telegraph
"The Organisation for Economic Cooperation on Development, a Paris-based group of the world's richest countries, said the British economy is likely to still be stagnant by the end of the year. In stark contrast, it believes other leading countries such as America will have returned to strong growth.The UK economy will shrink in the third quarter and register zero growth in the fourth quarter, while America's economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in the fourth quarter and the euro Area's will increase by 2 per cent."

Wednesday, 2 September 2009

UK pledges extra $11bn to IMF to tackle crisis

Telegraph
"Britain has agreed to increase the amount of cash it is handing to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after it emerged that the G20 has failed so far to fulfil its pledge to raise an extra $500bn (£307bn) of emergency cash for the Fund."